Press room

The day before the Social Summit, the Centre d’analyse stratégique presented several documents on the evolution of employment by sector, requested by the President.

Among the important announcements presented in these documents, the CAS envisions that 783,000 net jobs in trade sectors will be created by 2016, averaging about 160,000 jobs per year.

Among the sectors that will create the most jobs by 2016 are: operational services (236,000 jobs), consluting and assistance (155,000), personal and household services (96 000), recreational activities, culture and sports (75 000), construction (71 000), transportation (37,000), etc.

Areas of new growth: a projection for 2030

In the long-run, three "realistic" scenarios for 2030 envision the positive and negative shocks that sectors might face and that could challenge their level of responsiveness.

The constrained scenario anticipates uncertain mediocre changes, in which 1.7 million jobs could be created in 20 years and the unemployment rate would fall to 7.8%.

The crisis scenario envisions a degradation of Europe's competitiveness in foreign markets with increased financial constraints on economic agents. 1.6 million jobs will be created in this scenario with an unemployment rate at 8.2% .

The target scenario, envisions a very proactive economy, in which the French economy will develop a new growth model based on intensive innovations, more focus on the service sector, changes in environmental responsibilities and changes to consumption behavior and production. In this scenario, economic growth will be 2.2% per year, 2.2 million jobs will be created and unemployment will fall to 6.3%.

Press Contact:

Jean-Michel Roullé, Head of Communications
Tél. 01 42 75 61 37 - jean-michel.roulle@strategie.gouv.fr