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The Car of Tomorrow (Policy Brief 227 - June 2011)

The Car of Tomorrow (Policy Brief 227 - June 2011)

15/06/11

In a tense situation between the prospect of climate change and rising geopolitical pressures on oil resources, the electric vehicle can appear as a promising solution.

That emit no pollution at the local level, it is even often called vehicle "zero emission", in an exaggerated, however, since this expression takes into account the carbon content or electricity it uses, nor of its cycle of life. The ecological interest will double energy security considerations, but the benefits to society are accompanied by constraints primarily on individuals: long and frequent recharging, limited autonomy. If consumers seem willing to reconsider their vision of mobility, the price will remain for many a very important variable in the buying decision: the cost of electric vehicles depends primarily on the price of the battery and the annual distance traveled.

Given the current differences in cost, electric vehicles will probably not be cheaper than the heat medium in the coming years: so do not expect a burst of all-electric market. If we set a target to reduce our dependence on oil (which leads to de facto also reduce emissions of carbon dioxide), we must continue to improve combustion vehicles, including the potential for progress is important: a 50% reduction in unit consumption compared to 2007 is reasonably possible futures. The gradual electrification of vehicles thermal and large-scale development of PHEVs would go even further and are promising avenues for improvement.

Contents:

  • What future for electric vehicles?
  • The profitability of electric vehicles will depend primarily on the price of the battery and its use
  • Infrastructure necessary to support development of electric vehicles
  • Is it possible to create a market "consumer" substantial?
  • Traffic constraints would favor the electric motor
  • Achieving the general objectives of reducing emissions requires strong improvement in vehicle performance thermal
  • Objectives and recommendations
  • Authors: Johanne Buba, Etienne Beeker, Dominique Auverlot, Department of Sustainable Development, Centre for Strategic Analysis and Philippe Hirtzman (CGIET) edited by Jean Syrota

Press Contact:
Jean-Michel Roullé
Head of Communications
Tel. +33 (0)1 42 75 61 37 jean-michel.roulle@strategie.gouv.fr

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