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Areas of new growth: a projection for 2030 (Policy Brief 259 - January 2012)

Areas of new growth: a projection for 2030 (Policy Brief 259 - January 2012)

17/01/12

While the market turmoil seems to focus on short-term growth, looking at the key issues and considering the origins of long-term growth is a way to reduce uncertainty. Identifying these origins requires a thorough examination of the rising and declining tendencies in economic activity. These tendencies are the result of a transforming economy and an ability to restructure the economy in different manners based on the sectors concerned. 

  • Areas of new growth: a projection for 2030

The macroeconomic projections, of which some its determinants are more international than domestic (price, world demand), affect industries with varying magnitudes. This mixed affect initiated a model created in collaboration with the Erasmus laboratory: the model provides macroeconomic projections with sectorial components and measures the resistance of economic activities under a number of shocks that could affect the global and national economy.

Based on three different scenarios, the model provides a realistic summary of changes in economic conditions and the level of responsiveness in different sectors: the target scenario is proactive and envisions an evolution of the French economy towards a new growth model with a high level of innovation and substance, a larger service sector, increased environmental responsibility, and a change in consumer behavior and production. This model is based on public policies and a restored macroeconomic stability; the constrained scenario anticipates mediocre developments in an uncertain environment taking into account the responses that have already been registered in the crisis zone; and finally, the crisis scenario describes a situation in which Europe’s competitiveness in foreign markets deteriorates and constraints on economic agents increase.

In line with mid-term developments, long-term growth projections favor the sectors benefiting from structural origins based on domestic demand (public or individual utilities), protected sectors (intermediary services, construction, tourism) and outsourced services in companies. However, the driving factors and the risks that could hurt the French growth trajectory do not affect economic activities evenly. Some are favored or penalized earlier while others remain neutral or less exposed. Construction, industry and business services are the most sensitive sectors affected by changes in economic conditions, regardless of whether these conditions are induced by external factors or proactive public policies. Thus, this sensitivity substantially modifies the sectorial components of growth.

Contents:

  • The major long-term trends
  • Uncertainties in the pace and scale of the transformation
  • The reorganization of sectorial employment
  • Authors: Cecile Jolly, Department of Labour - Employment, Maxime Liegey, Department of Economics and Financial Affairs and Oliver Passet, Center d’analyse stratégique
    With the help of the Erasmus team-NEMESIS
    Paul Zagamé, Pierre Le Mouël, Baptiste Boitier and Arnaud Fougeyrollas

Press Contact:
Jean-Michel Roullé, Head of Communications
Tel. +33 (0)1 42 75 61 37 - jean-michel.roulle@strategie.gouv.fr

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